The latest polling has shown the Conservatives leading the Liberals by an astonishing 20 points, nearly doubling the number of votes the Liberals are expected to get.
According to an Abacus poll published on April 11, if an election were to be held today, the Conservatives would garner 44% of the vote, while the Liberals would only receive 24%.
Meanwhile, the NDP is expected to receive 17% of the vote, while the BQ is expected to receive 6%. Greens and PPC are expected to receive 5% and 3%, respectively.
Based on previous polls, this puts the Liberals down 6 points from June 24, 2022, while the Conservatives have risen 10 points over the same time period.
Moreover, the Conservatives are leading in every age group. Even among 18 to 29-year-olds, the Conservatives are 19 points ahead of the Liberals (42% vs. 23%, respectively).
Similarly, for male voters, Conservatives sit at 48% compared to the Liberals 24%, while for female voters, Conservatives are expected to receive 39% of the vote compared to the Liberals 24%.
Nanos finds similar results
A recently conducted Nanos poll also produced similar, albeit slightly less stark, findings. According to the poll of 1,000 respondents, the Conservatives currently lead the Liberals by 12 points (rather than 20), i.e., likely still enough to secure a majority government, with the Conservatives receiving 38% of support versus the Liberals 26%.
Additionally, among respondents, inflation, the environment, jobs, and the overall economy continue to be the primary wedge issues among voters.
Abacus pollsters also gauged approval of the PM, with impressions of Trudeau remaining at an incredibly low -33 (58% negative, 25% positive, and 7% uncertain). Conversely, Pierre Poilievre holds a net score of +5 (39% positive vs. 34% negative).
