An April 21 update indicates that if an election were held today, the Conservative Party of Canada is projected to win somewhere between 176 – 231 seats.

The Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is projected to win between 51 – 102 seats, as per 338 Canada.

This is a minor bump for the Liberals since last month, which had the Conservatives at 182 – 232 seats, and the Liberals were projected to win 43 – 90 seats.

Still, with only 170 seats required to form a majority government, the Conservatives currently remain in a comfortable spot. 

The Liberals introduced their 2024 budget last week, which has predictably garnered mixed reaction, though more seems to be negative than positive.

Jagmeet Singh factor

Sitting in third place is Quebec’s separatist party, the Bloc Québécois, which has more support than Jagmeet Singh’s federal New Democrat Party (NDP). The Bloc are projected to win 40 seats compared to the NDP’s feeble 20. 

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has recently been overtaken by woke ideologues who literally direct White men to the back of the line at their national conventions.

Many speculate the NDP leader Singh is steering clear of triggering a no confidence vote of PM Justin Trudeau, thereby forcing an election to be called, because Singh assumes the election results will be so humiliating for his own party that he’d have to step down before securing his pension, which isn’t until October 2025.

The Trudeau factor

In another recent poll by Mainstreet Research, 71% of all voters expressed a preference for a leadership change away from Prime Minister Trudeau in the next election. 

These results also indicated that many NDP, Green, and Bloc voters are willing to vote for the Liberals to prevent the Conservatives from winning a majority.

There are enough voters who expressed a willingness for a ‘strategic vote’ that could cause as much as a 10-point swing in favour of the Liberals, which would make a majority government for the Conservatives much less likely. 

But there’s a catch: only 9.4% of these potential strategic voters said they would do so with Trudeau staying on as the Liberal leader.

Overall, 71% of all voters expressed a preference for a leadership change away from Trudeau in the next election. 

The Prime Minister has said that he has every intention to run in the next election, which isn’t slated until October 2025.