With 18 months to go until the next scheduled Canadian federal election, the Opposition Conservatives hold a dominant lead over the Trudeau Liberals —  including, at the moment, a 99% chance of forming a majority government. 

338Canada’s March 17 update indicates that if an election were held today, the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, are projected to win somewhere between 182 – 232 seats. 

Only 170 seats are required to form a majority government, putting the Conservatives in a comfortable spot.   

Conversely, the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, are projected to win between 43 – 90 seats.  

Sitting in third place is Quebec’s separatist party, the Bloc Québécois, which is notable because of the fact that this pseudo-federal party actually has more support from the province of Quebec alone than the New Democrat Party (NDP) has from the entire country. The Bloc are projected to win 36 seats compared to the NDP’s 25. 

The NDP, under the champagne socialist Jagmeet Singh, has been overtaken by woke ideologues who literally direct White men to the back of the line at their national conventions, believing their blatant racism is actually “anti-racist.”

Many speculate the NDP leader is steering clear of triggering a no confidence vote of PM Justin Trudeau, thereby forcing an election to be called, because Singh assumes the election results will be so humiliating for his own party that he’ll have to step down — and he doesn’t want this to happen before 2025 because that’s when his pension kicks in.

The Trudeau factor

In another recent poll by Mainstreet Research, 71% of all voters expressed a preference for a leadership change away from Trudeau in the next election. 

These results also indicated that many NDP, Green, and Bloc voters are willing to vote for the Liberals to prevent the Conservatives from winning a majority.

There are enough voters willing to do this strategic vote to cause a 10 point swing, which would make a majority government for the Conservatives much less likely. 

But there’s a catch: only 9.4% of these potential strategic voters say they would do so with Trudeau staying on as the Liberal leader.

Overall, 71% of all voters, including 35.5% of Liberal voters and 74.5% of undecided voters, expressed a preference for a leadership change away from Trudeau in the next election. 

The Prime Minister has said that he has every intention to run in the next election, which isn’t slated until October 2025.