Election day is here, and it’s looking like it’s Trudeau’s election to lose.
As PM Justin Trudeau originally called the election to reclaim the majority government he lost in 2019, anything short of a Liberal majority should be seen as a failure — a failure that may justify a Liberal leadership review.
And that failure may very well happen.
Based on 14 final polls conducted on September 19, Conservatives came out on top six times, Liberals won five times, and the two parties tied in three of the polls when rounded to the nearest percentile.
However, regardless of who wins, the margin is not so significant to likely create a majority government. So, if polls are in any way predictive, another minority government coupled with the usual discombobulated House of Commons will emerge when we know the results.
According to yesterday’s Nanos poll, the Liberals currently sit at 32.4 per cent, while the Conservatives trail just behind at 31.2 per cent. The next closest party is the NDP at 17.5 per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois, People’s Party of Canada, and Green Party.
This poll is consistent with nearly every other poll, with the Liberals polling more consistently between 29 per cent to 33 per cent and the Conservatives polling between 27 per cent to 33 per cent. Moreover, Trudeau formed the last Liberal minority government with only 33.12 per cent of the vote — a portion of the vote most polls have the Liberals falling short of in 2021.
Final Polls For 2021 Federal Election: pic.twitter.com/Y6UN9B7xUy
— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) September 20, 2021
It should also be noted that the only Party Leader not to promise to abstain from calling a snap election at the English Language debate was Trudeau. As such, if he skirts by with a minority government again, we may have yet another unwarranted and unwanted election soon.
Another exciting development is the rising popularity of the PPC. Every poll shows that support for the PPC is greater than support for the Green Party, and occasionally even higher than support for the BQ.
Moreover, the Green Party’s new leader Annamie Paul says that she has considered resigning as leader of the Green Party following the election. Thus, should the Green Party fail to win a single seat — a genuine possibility — and Paul were to resign, the party may become unsalvageable, with the PPC permanently replacing it as Canada’s fifth or fourth de facto party along with the BQ.
In addition to being a historically close race, Canadians will not know the election results for two to five days, either, due to mail-in ballots. Unfortunately, this will keep tensions high throughout the week in what is already a highly divided Canada.
