Liberal support plummets to record low under Trudeau, poll shows 
The Poilievre Conservatives have surged to an all-time high 46% support, opening up a 21-point national lead over the Trudeau Liberals.

Mike Campbell

March 12, 2024

The latest poll from Mainstreet Research reveals a significant downturn for the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, marking an unprecedented low in the party’s support.

The poll, conducted between March 8th and 10th, surveying 1,274 adults nationwide, showed that only 25% of decided and leaning voters favour the Trudeau Liberals. 

In contrast, the Poilievre Conservatives have surged to an all-time high, securing 46% support. This amounts to a 21-point national lead for the Conservatives.

The neo-Liberal, anti-White and anti-male NDP, under Jagmeet Singh, remain firmly in third place with 15% support.

From coast to coast, across ages, and both genders

The Liberals’ nosedive exists across demographics and regions, challenging long-established patterns of backing for the party. 

For example, among female voters, a demographic where Liberals have traditionally held sway, the Conservatives now lead with over 37% support. 

Even among voters over 65 and visible minorities — groups that have historically favored the Liberals —the Conservatives have gained considerable ground.

The regional data is equally stark, with the Conservatives leading in every region including Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. 

The poll suggests that if an election were held today, Conservatives would win a majority government.

The Trudeau factor

However, many NDP, Green, and Bloc voters express a willingness to vote for the Liberals to prevent such from happening. There are enough voters willing to do this strategic vote to cause a 10 point swing, which would make a majority government for the Conservatives much less likely. 

But there’s a catch: only 9.4% of these potential strategic voters would do so with Trudeau staying on as the Liberal leader.

Overall, 71% of all voters, including 35.5% of Liberal voters and 74.5% of undecided voters, expressed a preference for a leadership change away from Trudeau in the next election. 

The Prime Minister has stated that he has every intention to run in the next election, which isn’t slated until October 2025.

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