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JUST OUT: Liberals lose national lead, PPC gains momentum in Alberta

Thomas Lambert

August 24, 2021


Despite PM Justin Trudeau’s fever dream of reclaiming a majority government, voters are more than ever considering the Conservative and NDP parties as viable alternatives, a new IPSOS poll reveals.

According to the poll, the Liberals have fallen 3 points over only a single week of campaigning, likely due to public outcry levied against the Prime Minister. This is down from 36 to 33 percent, while the Conservatives and NDP both saw small gains, rising 1 percent. The NDP now sits at 21 percent, while the Conservatives are sitting at 32 percent of the vote.

This leads IPSOS author Darrell Bricker to call the election “statistically tied” if it were called tomorrow, based on the available data.

While Liberals lose ground nationally, Maxime Bernier’s PPC has a strong showing in the conservative heartland of Alberta – passing the Liberals and moving into second place.


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Perhaps most significantly, the data shows a massive wave of apathy directed towards the Liberal party in Ontario as many voters snuggle up to the Conservatives. In Ontario, Liberals have lost 9 points in the last week, with much of their base swinging Blue.

In Ontario, the Conservatives now hold a strong lead at 35 percent over the Liberals who sit at 31 percent. The NDP also saw modest gains, sitting at 23 percent, while the Green Party sits at 6 percent, and the PPC sits at 2 percent.

This will likely be extremely troubling to the Liberals who rely on Ontario as their “liberal stronghold.”

“Indeed, more Canadians believe that the Conservatives (24%) have been gaining the most popularity and momentum over the last couple of weeks than believe this is true about the Liberals (22%),” Bricker writes. “But many believe the NDP (17%) is gaining momentum. Fewer say the same about the Bloc (5%), Greens (3%), or some other party (3%).”

Far from being a foregone conclusion as was previously predicted, it looks like the Liberal Party has its work cut out for them. And much of the struggle appears to be a direct result of Party Leader Justin Trudeau’s poor public reception.

Indeed, every step of the way Trudeau has been met with indignation over his vaccine and lockdown policies.

According to the poll, Trudeau enjoyed approval ratings of 50 percent or higher during the pandemic; however, over the last month, this approval has fallen to 45 percent, with only 10 percent strongly approving of his performance.

Moreover, only 38 percent of Canadians believe that the Trudeau government should be re-elected, while 62 percent believe that it is time for a new party to take over.

Additionally, more women have flocked to the NDP, with 26 percent now favouring the party compared to the Conservatives at 33 percent and Liberals at 35 percent. Conversely, men favour the Conservative Party at 33 percent, Liberals at 31 percent, and NDP at a meagre 16 percent.

While the poll relied on a below-average sample size of 1,500 Canadians aged 18+, the results are still quite telling, considering it has only been a week since the pre-campaign polls were released. Indeed, the Liberals managed to squander their lead; and this could create foreboding for what is to come, especially with an election less than a month away.

How the election will play out is now anyone’s guess, and only time will tell whether Canadians are ready for a divorce from the Liberal Party.

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