The most recent polling data shows that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) is set to walk away with another majority in the Ontario election.

According to 338Canada’s Vote projection on May 12, the PC Party currently sits at 38 per cent, while the Ontario Liberals lag far behind at 28 per cent, and the NDP sits a 23 per cent.

Similarly, an Abacus poll published on May 9 had the Progressive Conservatives at 38 per cent, Liberals at 29 per cent, and NDP at 22 per cent.

This is mostly consistent with a poll published on May 2, just one day before Doug Ford dissolved the legislature, that had the Progressive Conservatives at 37 per cent, while the Liberals sat at 30 per cent, and the NDP sat at 34 per cent.

“The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds,” Abacus CEO David Coletto said.

“If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and early June, the PCs should win another majority.”

Indeed, despite Ford’s heavy-handed pandemic response and the authoritarian measures put in place, it appears that Ontarians are going to re-elect him, seeing no better alternative that has a reasonable chance of winning.

Both the Ontario Party and New Blue Party have promised to put laws into place protecting Ontarians from future lockdowns and mandates, but it’s unlikely they’ll receive any sizable share of the vote.

Conversely, the Liberals and NDP have both promised to return Ontario to a state of COVID hell, saying that they will reimplement the mask mandate as soon as either is elected. The Liberals have also stated that they want to have a vaccine mandate for kids to go to school.

However, it isn’t clear that Ford won’t do the same after the election is over, as Ford’s Chief Medical Officer Kieran Moore already indicated that bringing back mandates every flu season is still on the table.