A new poll commissioned by The Counter Signal has revealed a surprising shift in voter loyalty ahead of the 2025 Calgary mayoral election.
The survey, conducted by National Public Research Canada, found that 35.7% of those who supported Jeromy Farkas in the 2021 election do not plan to vote for him again and will park their vote with another candidate.
The poll, which surveyed 1,909 Calgary residents via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) using both mobile and landline sampling, was conducted on September 4, 2024. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2%.
Despite losing a significant portion of his 2021 voter base, Farkas is benefiting from an influx of disillusioned supporters of the incumbent mayor, Jyoti Gondek.
Farkas garnered 29.91% of the vote when he ran as a conservative in the last election, but after befriending former mayor Naheed Nenshi and framing himself as a born-again centrist, tides are shifting favorably in his direction, putting him solidly in the lead at 36.9%.
Farkas losing support
Farkas’ support could be attributed to name recognition, especially with no candidates having declared their candidacy yet. Even so, he is set to retain only 64.3% of his 2021 supporters, indicating challenges in maintaining loyalty from past voters.
Of the 35.7% of voters who previously backed Farkas but have shifted their allegiance, the largest portion—9.4%—now support Sonya Sharp.
Dan McLean follows closely, with 7.7% of former Farkas supporters indicating they will cast their vote for him in the upcoming election. Jeff Davidson and incumbent Mayor Jyoti Gondek each attracted 3.1% of Farkas’ former voters.
An additional 6.4% of respondents said they would support a different candidate, while 6.2% remain undecided.
Gondek also tanking
As exclusively reported by The Counter Signal on Thursday, the poll indicates support for Mayor Gondek is at an all-time low.
Fewer than 1 in 5 Calgary residents back her re-election campaign, a figure that makes her path to a second term increasingly uncertain.
