New polling found that the Trudeau Liberals are doing so badly following the byelection loss in Toronto that they’ll probably lose Vancouver, too.
New polling and election map projections from Nanos Research show Vancouver turning almost entirely blue, aside from a few NDP holdouts and some swing elections, while in the last election, the area was awash with Liberal red.
Moreover, according to Nanos Research chair Nik Nanos, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will likely face a neck-in-neck race, with a serious possibility of losing his seat to the Conservatives in Burnaby South.
“They’re really, truly, multi-party races with vote splits,” Nanos said.
“But zoom into Vancouver … you can see on the right-hand side, the previous election, very red, very Liberal. Look how blue it is right now. And this speaks to the sea change that’s happening right now.”
And as with Vancouver, while Toronto likely won’t face total defeat, significantly more ‘Liberal fortress’ ridings have become outright swing riding battlegrounds, with the Trudeau Liberals set to lose anywhere from a quarter to half of the ‘safe’ ridings they’ve relied on to maintain power in prior decades.
“What we’re seeing is the Liberal fortress Toronto basically under siege,” Nanos said. “So maybe Toronto—St. Paul’s is the canary in the coal mine.”
Pollster says Trudeau in office is good for Conservatives
Nanos also noted that Trudeau being in office is probably helping the Conservatives surge in popularity.
“I think the Conservatives and (leader) Pierre Poilievre want to run against Justin Trudeau,” Nanos said. “They basically, by winning, created conditions that put pressure on Trudeau to step down or to be pushed out. And that kind of resets everything.”
Indeed, 68% of Canadians dislike Trudeau so much they want him to step down before the next election.
Moreover, within his own party, many Liberal MPs have anonymously told the media that they want a new leader, essentially to save their own skin.
Meanwhile, provincial leaders and former ministers are openly distancing themselves or outright calling for Trudeau’s ousting.
While Trudeau abdicating the Liberal throne would certainly shake things up, given the current one-sided projections, it’s likely too little too late.
