Against all odds, the Progressive Conservatives managed to win Nova Scotia on Tuesday despite the province’s strong liberal leanings. PC leader Tim Houston will now form a majority government after Liberal Leader Iain Rankin conceded before the counting was even over.
This massive blowout comes as a shock to the Liberals, who have retained power over the province since 2013.
Houston, who became leader of the N.S. PC Party 3 years ago, was losing in the polls before the provincial election. However, by appealing to left-leaning voters’ concerns over a shaky healthcare system and providing a lavish spending plan, which will pump $553 million into infrastructure in just the first year of his term, he snagged the victory.
“Regardless of what the polls may say,” Houston said in his victory speech, “what we know is that if you provide real solutions to real problems, then the voters will pay attention. Not just here in Nova Scotia, but in all of Canada, we proved that just because there is a pandemic doesn’t mean [the] government gets a free pass.”
Houston now stands as the only MPP to unseat the Liberal Government since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. All other incumbent leaders had managed to retain their seats, likely due to people’s desire for stability in the early stages of the pandemic — the same reason that the upcoming federal election is so unwanted by many.
However, a series of Liberal scandals, including Rankin’s history of driving under the influence and another candidate’s OnlyFans account, coupled with the overall mismanagement of the province by the incumbent party, was more than enough to sway voters.
The significance of this defeat cannot be lost on the Liberal Party. While losing a Premiership is bad enough, the implications this defeat has for the upcoming federal election are far more harrowing.
There are 11 federal ridings in Nova Scotia, 10 held by Liberals, and only 1 held by a Conservative. While losing this many seats would not dethrone the Liberal government, it would be enough to ensure that they remain a minority government — and the whole point of the election, from the Liberal perspective, is to reclaim their majority status.
It is still anyone’s guess how N.S. will vote federally. But if what should have been a Liberal stronghold can flip blue, so can the rest of Canada.
As it stands, the Liberal Party needs to win at least 13 more seats to achieve its majority government ambitions. And to this end, they are relying on territorial retention, which this election has shown may not be so simple.
