NDP leader Rachel Notley indicated in her election defeat speech that she would stay on as the leader of the opposition but the question remains, until when?  

The United Conservative Party under Premier Danielle Smith, has won a majority government, leaving Notley in a precarious position. But unlike some expected, Notley’s political career is far from over. 

In fact, she could have a chance to make a bigger impact than she ever did during her accidental blip in power, and potentially take out one of the most inept politicians in the country while she is at it.. 

That is, if she decided to run for the federal NDP leadership. 

The rumor is

The rumors have been swirling for days now, mostly among conservative political circles talking about how obvious the move would be for her.

Notley, I think, is one of the only people in the country who could give the NDP a taste of the Jack Layton momentum that they saw in 2011. 

Look, I am not saying she would do a good job doing what Trudeau is doing. If her history in power is anything to judge, Canada would be in an even bigger mess than it is now. Is she electable nationwide? Not a chance. I am just saying that she would be good at one job: Operation Replace Singh. 

Jagmeet Singh’s failure

After years of doing nothing but tip-toeing around the Trudeau regime to not risk an election that the NDP couldn’t afford to fight, Jagmeet Singh rings hollow in the ears of the NDP faithful.

Notley has more experience and connection to the NDP than Jagmeet Singh, who has been struggling to gain traction with voters and to differentiate himself from Justin Trudeau and his Liberals.

Notley has played a role in the NDP since at least 1991 and has served as a premier and an opposition leader. She has a proven track record of implementing policies close to progressives’ hearts like the minimum wage, carbon tax and expanding public health care. Not to mention, Notley’s generational relationship to the party through her father Grant Notley. 

Singh, on the other hand, has only been leader of the federal NDP since 2017 and has never held a cabinet position or led a government. He has been criticized for being vague and inconsistent on key issues such as pipelines, pharmacare and electoral reform. 

Compared to Notley, Singh is a lightweight, and the NDP faithful know it.

Singh’s performance is a far cry from the time the party was the official opposition in Parliament. It is to be noted that under Singh the party plunged into massive debt in the aftermath of the 2021 election, while last year Notley’s Alberta NDP outshadowed the UCP in fundraising for every quarter of 2022. 

Notley could have a Jack Layton moment

If Notley ran in a federal election as the more grounded NDP leader, she could potentially replicate the success of Jack Layton in 2011, when he led his party to its best ever result of 103 seats and official opposition status. Although Notley was unable to prevent a UCP majority, she could be just what the NDP need on a federal level. 

The Alberta NDP are currently up 15 seats and saw a 11.35% gain in the popular vote when compared to the last election. Those numbers are not to be dismissed. 

Federally, the situation would likely look more promising. She could sweep urban British Columbia for the NDP. She could also make gains in Manitoba, especially in Winnipeg. She could even challenge Trudeau in his own backyard of Quebec, where Layton won 59 seats out of 75 in 2011 – the most won by any federal party.

Notley becoming leader of the federal NDP would be a coup for her, personally. It would lead to sweeping urban gains for the NDP.  It would spell disaster for Trudeau. But best of all, perhaps, is that It would serve victory on a silver platter to Poilievre.