In a Monday night byelection, the Liberal Party of Canada lost the Toronto-St. Paul’s riding that they’ve held firmly for over thirty years, with the Conservatives pulling off a shocking flip.
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Don Stewart of the Conservative Party narrowly beat Leslie Church, the Liberal candidate and longtime Liberal staffer. According to Elections Canada, Stewart collected 15,555 votes (42.1%), compared to Church taking in 14,965 votes (40.5%).
The stunning development will put immediate pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign. The Toronto-St. Paul’s riding is even considered by CBC to be “one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country.”
Some called this byelection a referendum on Trudeau, and suggested that even a close win for the Liberals would require him to step down.
The election was triggered after Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett said she was retiring from politics, only to shortly thereafter announce a new role as Canada’s ambassador to Denmark. During the most previous election in 2021, Bennett won 49% of the vote for the Liberals, with the Conservatives coming in second place, getting 25%.
In defeat, Church congratulated Stewart, saying she will remain the Liberal’s representative heading into the next federal election, currently scheduled for October 2025.
“We look forward to the rematch,” she said.
Church was supported by many key figures in the Liberal Party during her campaign, including Trudeau, who’s name was notably miniscule on her campaign sign, an indicator that’s all too obvious at this point, that being Trudeau is bad branding.
Trudeau on the brink
Recent polling data indicates that public trust in the Liberal government has cratered.
With this shocking win for the Conservatives, the pressure for him to resign will be greater than ever. The Opposition Conservatives currently hold a 21-point lead over the Trudeau Liberals.
Based on a recent Ipsos poll, 68% of Canadians now want Trudeau to step down before the next election.
According to Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker, Trudeau has almost officially hit “rock bottom”, with some of the lowest approval ratings the pollster has ever seen.
“This is as bad as we’ve seen it for Trudeau,” he said.
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