Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has surged ahead in polls as of Tuesday, May 2, with less than four weeks to go until the provincial election.

According to 338Canada, the United Conservative Party (UCP) leader Smith has an 80% chance of winning more seats than the New Democrat Party (NDP) led by Rachel Notley.

Likewise, Smith shows an 80% chance of winning a majority government.

Run by Philippe J. Fournier, a physicist and data analyst, 338Canada is a polling aggregator and electoral projection website. 

Source: 338Canada Alberta | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Fournier’s website uses statistical methods to aggregate and analyze polling data from various sources. 

The May 2 update to Alberta’s election also shows the UCP winning 48 seats (41-59) compared to the NDP winning 39 seats (28-46). 44 seats are required to win a majority government.

The UCP is also projected to win the popular vote, 48% compared to 44% for the NDP. 

Other polls indicate Smith is ahead of Notley but by a lesser margin. On Tuesday, Global News reported on an Ipsos poll that shows Smith has a 4 point lead.

Premier Danielle Smith launched the UCP election campaign on Monday with a promise to provide tax relief to all Albertans.

Smith said a UCP government would offer a slew of tax saving initiatives, including a new tax bracket for those earning $60,000 or less. 

Notley, meanwhile, launched her campaign just hours later. While Notley said the NDP tax plan will be rolled out in the coming days, she added “there will be no tax increases on any Albertans under an NDP government for the next four years.”