New polls published by both Mainstreet Research and 338Canada show a surge of support for the BC Conservatives, leaving the BC United Party (the recently transitioned BC Liberal Party) drowning in their wake.

According to a poll from Mainstreet Research published on March 21, support for the BC Conservatives has surged to 34.2% ahead of the province’s October election. This puts the party well above the BCU (14.5%) and only 5 points below the BC NDP (39.6%), who had a commanding victory in 2020.

This is significant as not so long ago, many, including popular Conservatives like Aaron Gunn, didn’t even see the BC Conservatives as true contenders, opting to vote and/or run for BC United (formerly the BC Liberals) as the only viable alternative to the NDP in the province. However, after several defections, support for the BC Conservatives has shown a distinct upwards trend.

Voters are heavily split by gender

As per the poll, voters appear to split down gender lines. According to Mainstreet Research, the BC Conservatives currently lead the NDP by 9 points among male voters. However, they trail the BC NDP by 20 points among female voters.

An Angus Reid poll found similar results. As per that poll, roughly 38% of male voters have signaled their intention to vote for the NDP, while 26% show favour for the BCC. Conversely, women are three times more likely to support the BC NDP than any other party.

The Angus Reid poll also obtained significantly different data for possible outcomes should a provincial election be held tomorrow, with the BC NDP sitting at 43%, while the BCC and BCU are tied at 22%. However, this still shows that the BC Conservatives have established themselves as the fastest-growing contenders.

This is consistent with older polls, including a poll released by 338Canada on February 1 that shows the BC NDP sitting at 46% (having gained 5 points), while BC Conservatives have grown by 4 points and now sit at 22%. Meanwhile, BC United shrank by 3 points and now sits at 18%.

Province appears primed for Conservative blowout in the next federal election

The outlook on the federal level is quite different, however.

As per the same Mainstreet Research poll that found the BC NDP retaining their hegemony on the provincial level, nearly 1 in 2 voters (49.6%) say they intend to vote for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in the next federal election, while only 22.8% say they will vote for the Liberals and only 19.4% say they will vote for the federal NDP.