The election is now underway, and the race is looking closer than ever before. The Liberals have faced an unprecedented number of scandals, Conservative momentum seems low, and the PPC will likely replace the Green Party as Canada’s fourth option.
It is anyone’s game, and the stakes could not be higher. As such, this is a list comprising some of the most contended ridings that Canadians should be watching.
Beauce, QC
The last election was challenging for PPC Leader Maxime Bernier. He had just left the Conservative Party to form the People’s Party of Canada over ideological differences and hoped that his constituents in Beauce would be willing to cross party lines.
Many did, but it was clearly not enough.
This year, however, things are different. The PPC is polling anywhere from 4 to 10 per cent nationally depending on what poll you use — higher than the Green Party in any case — and the party is finally looking like a viable alternative to their Centrist counterparts.
If Maxime were to win back his riding, it would be a massive victory for the party, signifying Canadians’ willingness to consider options other than the historic red-blue parties.
Burnaby South, BC
As many leaders do, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has prioritized his role as leader of his party rather than assuring re-election in his riding. So perhaps he has reason to be confident. In the 2019 federal election, Singh won by just shy of 7 points, winning 16,956 votes to Conservative representative Jay Shin’s 13,914.
However, this is a far cry from the dominance PM Justin Trudeau exudes in his riding. In the same election, Trudeau won 51.2 per cent of his riding’s votes, compared to Singh’s 37.7 per cent. Trudeau could likely sleep on his riding’s race, but Singh cannot say the same. A 3,000-vote difference is not insurmountable, and Burnaby South is still a new riding getting settled in its trends.
Banff—Airdrie, AB
Perhaps the most infamous Independent candidate, Derek Sloan, has had a tumultuous year. He was previously ousted from the party for his refusal to stop being socially conservative and accepting a donation from the wrong person.
Since then, Sloan has chosen to pack up and leave Ontario for Alberta, hoping that he can secure the Conservative vote in Banff—Airdrie. However, there are no good indicators as to whether he can do this.
It is not uncommon for MPs to leave their riding and try their luck in another — but it is unusual without federal support from a major party.
Regardless of the outcome, it will be an uphill battle for Sloan, who is squaring off against the Conservative’s Blake Richards.
Calgary Centre, AB
Calgary Centre is one of the ridings that flipped Conservative due to the blue wave that swept across Alberta and Saskatchewan in the 2019 election.
Previously held by Liberal MP Kent Hehr, Conservative Greg McLean absolutely dominated the riding, winning 36,360 votes to Kent Hehr’s 17,199.
With many Conservatives claiming that both the Maverick Party and PPC are going to ‘split the vote,’ Calgary Centre provides a unique opportunity to see how these two parties affect Conservative turnout and the veracity of Conservatives’ claims.
Yukon, YT
Yet another candidate on the list whom O’Toole’s regime ousted, Jonas J. Smith is now running in Yukon as an Independent.
In mid-August, Smith was kicked from the party after he refused to back O’Toole’s segregationist COVID policy, which included vaccine mandates and is sure to include vaccine passports later.
Barbara Dunlop has since replaced Smith, but it is unclear who has the bigger edge in the Yukon race. Smith now stands alone but was popular in the Territory before his removal, receiving 32.7 per cent of the 2019 vote and only losing to the Liberal Party by less than 200 votes.
Durham, ON
While Erin O’Toole has consistently dominated the Durham riding, there is reason to believe he may perform less well.
Regularly earning 40-50 per cent of the vote, it is almost a foregone conclusion that he should win again. However, if O’Toole performs significantly worse than usual, it may constitute a voter’s revolt against his fondness of Liberal COVID lockdowns and mandates, which is much more unpopular with those on the right.
Saanich—Gulf Islands, BC
With Green Party support significantly lower than in 2019, former Green Party Leader Elizabeth May will likely have more difficulty securing her riding than previously believed.
While May tried to push the party’s new leader to the fore, she has been so far unsuccessful and has all but disappeared from the public eye. However, despite this absence, many still view her as the party’s face, and if she were to lose, it could be seen as symbolic of the party’s overall state.
Toronto Centre, ON
This brings us to the Green Party’s new leader Annamie Paul. While Paul performed better than most expected at the election debates, her party remains in shambles.
Moreover, Paul recently said that she might resign as leader of the party following the election, adding that she did not do so earlier because she did not want the party leaderless during the race. Regardless of her reasons, the comments are hardly encouraging for Green voters.
How this may affect voter turnout is anyone’s guess. However, should both the current Party Leader lose her riding, along with the only two seats the party holds, the Green Party would effectively be inconsequential in future races — perhaps dissolving altogether.
Spadina—Fort York, ON
Kevin Vuong is among the several Liberal candidates to be thrown out of the party due to scandalous allegations this year. Despite having his 2019 sexual assault charges dropped, the Liberal Party has decided to forgo the cost of supporting this candidate. Furthermore, if elected, the Liberal Party said they would not have him be a part of their caucus, essentially leaving an entire riding uncontested even though Vuong remains on the ballot.
Kitchener Centre, ON
Another Liberal candidate who has faced sexual allegations, Raj Saini was similarly booted from the party despite being the popular MP of the Kitchener Centre riding in Ontario.
Saini announced that he was ending his campaign on September 4, again, leaving a riding without a Liberal candidate.
“There are no straightforward answers the way I’d like to. So we had a process that went through this, the allegations that were there a year ago, and we were confident in our ability to move forward with Mister Saini as a candidate,” said Trudeau at the time.
“New allegations came forward very recently, and now Mister Saini is no longer our candidate.”
“Obviously, this is a far from [the] ideal situation that we no longer have any candidate in that riding. There’s going to be lots of reflections on what we could have, should have done differently, but my primary concern in this is making sure that we have a process that we can apply rigorously in every different situation,” said Trudeau.
In 2019, Mike Morrice, a Green Party candidate, came second in the race, with Saini winning 36.6 per cent of the vote and Morrice winning 26 per cent of the vote.
However, there is no reason to suppose that Saini’s votes will be redistributed to Morrice rather than the Conservative or NDP candidates,
As in the case of Spadina—Fort York, the Liberal absence in Kitchener Centre has thrown everything into chaos, with predictions impossible to make.
