S&P Global Commodity Insights study finds emissions cap will cost Canada $247 billion
A new study from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that Trudeau’s emissions cap will cost Canadians $247 billion in lost revenue and kill tens of thousands of jobs.

TCS Wire

May 28, 2024

A new study from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows that Trudeau’s emissions cap will cost Canadians hundreds of billions in lost revenue and kill tens of thousands of jobs.

S&P Global Commodity Insights study finds emissions cap will cost Canada $247 billion

According to the economic impact assessment, which was commissioned by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, if left to run its own course and if the government allowed the sector to grow to just an 8% increase in production, the Canadian oil and gas sector would deliver $1.3 trillion in GDP contributions and support 383,000 Canadian jobs by 2035 annually.

Unfortunately, under the current federal government, the complete opposite is happening—the sector is being suffocated.

While the Trudeau government has said the emissions cap is simply a reduction in emissions, not necessarily a reduction in oil and gas production, that’s exactly what it entails, and economists have taken note of the havoc this will reap in the Canadian economy.

According to the study, the Trudeau government’s 40% emissions cap by 2030 will lead to a one million boe/d lower production in 2030 and a two million boe/d reduction following the 55% mandated emissions reduction by 2035.

In terms of impact, this will result in a $247 billion lower GDP contribution between the present and 2035 compared to the industry’s current trajectory, as well as scaring off $75 billion in potential investment.

And as for jobs, 51,000 will be killed in the process as the oil and gas sector reels.

Nothing about this is good for Canada.

Alberta Premier speaks out against Trudeau’s plan

In a joint statement to the PM, Premier Danielle Smith and Ministers Rebecca Schulz and Brian Jean condemned Trudeau’s emissions cap, outlining the findings of the study and declaring the emissions cap unconstitutional.

“Alberta will bear the brunt of this production cut, but the pain will be felt across every province and territory,” Premier Smith said. “Make no mistake: this isn’t about emissions. Emissions intensity per barrel has fallen by 23 per cent since 2009 and is on track to decline by another 17 per cent, if not more.”

Smith continues, saying that despite global leaders’ collective campaign against the energy sector, every credible forecaster expects oil and gas demand to continue to rise from now until 2050 and almost definitely beyond.

“This cap will not make the world consume less energy or reduce demand for oil and gas,” Smith said. “It will simply increase coal and other higher-polluting energy from outside Canada while decreasing production here and chilling investment in critical technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage.

“Only an out-of-touch federal government would sacrifice Canadian livelihoods knowing its actions will end up increasing global emissions… Ottawa’s reckless scheme threatens not only Alberta jobs but Canada’s economic future. Billions in investment will vanish, retirement savings will be threatened, and families will feel the pinch.”

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