The latest polls have found that the Liberals are predicted to lose so badly in the upcoming federal election they may not even be able to form an opposition party in the wake of the expected Conservative blowout. That honour could go to the Bloc Quebecois—Canada’s French separatist party.

According to the latest Abacus poll, while the Liberal party is still expected to finish second in terms of overall votes (41% CPC vs. 23% LPC), they are currently neck and neck with the BQ for winning the second most seats. This is due to the breakdown of ridings and population and the fact that it appears a massive swath of Quebec has completely washed its hands of the Liberals.

Based on a breakdown of the poll, the Conservatives are predicted to win a commanding 207 seats (+88 from the last election). Meanwhile, the Liberals are expected to lose 101 seats and only retain 59, while the BQ are expected to rise from 32 to 41 seats, replacing the NDP as Canada’s third most popular party.

While the possibility of the BQ forming an opposition party is both humorous and perhaps distressing, given their separatist stance, the real takeaway from the poll is just how horribly the Liberals are doing with Canadians.

Even when broken down by age, not a single age group favours the Liberals or NDP over the Conservatives. This is especially notable given that mobilizing the youth vote has always been a significant component of both the Liberals’ and the NDP’s relative success in the past. However, now 34% of those aged 18 to 29 have indicated their intent to vote Conservative in the next federal election. This is compared to 21% and 27% for the Liberals and NDP, respectively.

What do Canadians think of Trudeau and the Liberal Party?

The recent Abacus poll also recorded a number of responses on how Canadians actually feel about the Trudeau government.

Specifically, Canadians feel that the government under Justin Trudeau is “focused on the wrong priorities (61%) rather than on the right priorities (23%); closed (53%) rather than transparent (22%); ineffective (48%) rather than effective (24%); reactive (48%) rather than proactive (22%); and divisive (47%) rather unifying (25%).” This last point is perhaps the least surprising of the results, given Trudeau’s behaviour during the lockdowns, which was characterized as having driven division in the country.

Given these responses, it’s perhaps unsurprising that the data from the poll also show that Trudeau’s approval rating has nosedived from a ten-story building and is currently dragging itself along the pavement. Over the past three years, impressions of Justin Trudeau have gone from 43% negative and 38% positive (a net score of –5) to 58% negative and 24% positive (a net score of –34).

Conversely, impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre sit relatively unchanged, rising from –5 to +4 since 2022.

Interestingly, Canadians were split on whether Trudeau was actually empathetic (44%) or totally indifferent (44%). However, a majority (52%) believe that it’s time for a change in government and that there’s a good alternative (i.e., Pierre Poilievre).

All polls point to a Conservative victory, while Liberals will likely form an opposition party

This isn’t the only poll to show a Conservative blowout either. The most recent aggregate polling from 338Canada predicts the CPC will win 211 seats (+92) versus just 64 seats (–96) for the Liberals. And again, the BQ surpasses the NDP (35 vs. 25, respectively). Their previous aggregate polling also showed similar results, with trends only intensifying since.

Given these findings, while the Conservatives recently used the impending carbon tax hike as the impetus for a vote of no confidence, which failed due to the unholy Liberal–NDP partnership, consistent results of polls over the last year show that, as far as Canadians are concerned, Trudeau and the Liberals lost the confidence of the people a very long time ago. A change in government is long overdue. A majority of Canadians are ready for it.