The latest Abacus poll shows the United Conservative Party (UCP) a commanding 15 points ahead of the NDP in Alberta.

Based on current provincial vote intentions, the United Conservative Party (UCP) is predicted to win 55% of the vote, while the Alberta NDP lags behind at 40%, and the Alberta Party and other parties retain a negligible 2% each, respectively.

Pollsters also speculate that Naheed Nenshi, currently leading in the provincial NDP leadership race, is the best choice in terms of preventing the NDP from losing their competitiveness following the departure of Rachel Notley—primarily due to his name recognition from his time as the mayor of Calgary.

Nenshi the most popular and competitive choice following Notley’s departure

Specifically, it’s estimated that Nenshi would retain approximately 82% of the NDP base, win over 3% of the UCP base, and attract 12% of other parties’ support, while Sarah Hoffman would only retain 72% of the NDP base, win over 2% of current UCP support, and attract 8% of the support of other parties.

Regionally, support for the current government is very much split between rural and urban voters. Specifically, approval of the Smith government is –13 in Calgary, –20 in Edmonton, and +11 in the rest of the province. Overall, 32% strongly or mostly approve of the Smith government, while 38% disapprove (7% checked ‘don’t know’).

In terms of current leadership, just over 38% of Albertans have a positive impression of Smith, while 40% have a negative impression of her (net –1); comparatively, NDP leader Rachel Notley has a net score of –12 (31% positive vs. 43% negative).

Lastly, should Nenshi become the leader of the NDP, the results of a provincial election will likely stay the same as had Notley retained her position. While Nenshi is predicted to do particularly well in Calgary and Edmonton, the UCP is still likely to win 53% of the vote compared to the NDP under Nenshi’s 38%. Again, a 15-point difference.

Under any other leadership, however, the NDP is predicted to see a steep decline in popularity.