Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party leads Justin Trudeau’s Liberals across every demographic group, meaning that voter sentiment post-Liberal budget remains the same.
Conducted from April 25 to 29, Abacus Data’s most recent survey shows the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 21 points at the national level, the widest margin recorded for the Conservatives to date.
Despite efforts to sway public opinion with the recent federal budget, the Liberals still trail the Conservatives on younger voters—a critical demographic traditionally seen as a stronghold for Trudeau.
43% of 18–29 year-olds said they would vote for the Conservatives compared to 20% choosing the Liberals.
Across all four age demographics, respondents favoured the Conservatives over the Liberals by at least 17 percentage points.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political playbook heading into the 2025 election targets the wealthy in a bid to divide-and-win over the lower-middle class and young people. The Liberal’s 2024 budget focused on housing and capital gains tax changes, which have clearly failed to resonate broadly.
Even the radical NDP has managed to expand its accessible voter pool, surpassing the Liberals.
Majority dislike Trudeau
The poll further shows that impressions of Trudeau remain largely negative, with 58% of respondents having an unfavorable view of him, while Poilievre continues to improve in favourability.
Overall, if an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would support the Conservatives, with the Liberals at a distant 23%.
Regionally, the Conservatives dominate in the Prairies, and lead by significant margins in British Columbia and Ontario. Even in Quebec, the Conservatives are tied for second with the Liberals, just behind the Bloq.
